A recent announcement regarding contenders for the esteemed Cannes Film Festival has sparked excitement among film enthusiasts and industry experts alike. As these films vie for the prestigious Palme d’Or, many are eyeing their potential impact on the 2026 Oscars. The Oscars, often deemed the pinnacle of cinematic achievements, share a critical connection with festivals like Cannes. Indeed, iconic films such as Pulp Fiction, Parasite, Taxi Driver, and Apocalypse Now have historically made a mark at Cannes before solidifying their status at the Oscars. Frequently, success at Cannes can set the stage for Oscar prospects nearly a year down the line.
The 78th Cannes Film Festival kicks off on Tuesday, May 13, and continues until Saturday, May 24. Currently, approximately 19 films are in the running for the Palme d’Or, with the prospect of additional contenders being announced, as indicated by the festival’s general delegate, Thierry Frémaux. Given the significant roles films like Anora and Emilia Pérez played in the previous Oscars race, this year’s lineup could be equally influential. Below are five key predictions regarding the Cannes contenders that may emerge victorious at the 2026 Oscars.
5.
Paul Mescal Set for Best Actor Nomination Post Gladiator 2
Mescal Faces Tough Competition
One strong prediction for the 2026 Oscars hinges on the performance of Paul Mescal, who is anticipated to secure a Best Actor nomination. His forthcoming role in the historical drama Hamnet, directed by Chloé Zhao, has generated considerable buzz, particularly as he portrays the iconic William Shakespeare. However, it is likely that his poignant performance in The History of Sound will garner him the nomination. This adaptation follows two men traveling through New England, capturing folk songs amidst the turbulence of 1919—presenting a compelling narrative for Mescal to showcase his talents.
If Mescal does achieve a Best Actor nod, it will undoubtedly be euphoric, especially following the mixed reception of Gladiator 2 in 2024. While the film performed well financially and critically, it surprisingly missed the Oscar nominations, leaving Mescal yearning for recognition. Thankfully, The History of Sound could potentially redeem that. However, the competition is fierce; he will likely contend against heavyweights such as Leonardo DiCaprio, George Clooney, and Timothée Chalamet. While a win remains uncertain, a nomination appears within reach.
4.
Wes Anderson’s Latest Film Will Struggle to Secure Nominations
Anderson Must Impress Critics for Oscar Viability
Conversely, there are doubts surrounding Wes Anderson’s latest project, The Phoenician Scheme, which may not make an appearance at the 2026 Oscars. Despite being up for the Palme d’Or and presenting as a black comedy espionage film featuring a star-studded cast including Benicio del Toro and Tom Hanks, Anderson’s films have historically struggled to capture Oscar nominations as of late. His previous works, Asteroid City and The French Dispatch, were notably overlooked during their respective awards seasons, potentially setting a concerning precedent for his current film.
For The Phoenician Scheme to turn heads come Oscar time, it will need to impress critics not just with its stylistic elements, but also with a rich narrative that appeals to a broad audience. The last Oscar win for Anderson was back in 2014 with The Grand Budapest Hotel, and without a fresh, captivating narrative, this recent endeavor runs the risk of continuing a disappointing trend of neglect at the Academy Awards.
3.
Alpha Could Be the Next Anatomy of a Fall
Alpha Stands Out with Its Touching Narrative and Track Record
Following its triumphant sweep of five awards at the 2024 Oscars, the intriguing French film Anatomy of a Fall could see a successor in Alpha. This Palme d’Or contender explores the life of an 11-year-old girl navigating a fictional city during the 1980s as she grapples with her parent’s health crisis due to AIDS. Starring Golshifteh Farahani and directed by Julia Ducournau, Alpha promises a deeply moving narrative that is likely to resonate with audiences and critics alike.
One of the film’s strengths lies in Ducournau’s impressive history, having previously captured the Palme d’Or with Titane in 2021. This film is expected to showcase her diversity as a director, steering away from her recognizable horror themes into a more emotional storyline that could mark her most impactful work to date.
2.
Eddington: A Potential First Academy Award Nomination for Ari Aster
An Oscar Nomination Awaits Aster’s Unique Approach
Ari Aster, a name synonymous with innovative filmmaking, is another director bringing a much-anticipated film, Eddington, to Cannes in 2025. This darkly comedic Western follows a small-town sheriff locked in a standoff with the mayor in the midst of a highly charged disagreement in Eddington, New Mexico. Featuring a stellar cast, including Joaquin Phoenix and Emma Stone, it stands as Aster’s opportunity to break into the Oscar race, diverging from his traditional horror-focused narratives. While it may be a long shot, this film holds significant promise for Aster’s first Academy Award nomination.
Despite never receiving a nomination, Aster’s previous works, such as Hereditary and Midsommar, have earned critical acclaim. His recent film, Beau Is Afraid, did not resonate as expected with audiences, making Eddington a crucial venture for him to redefine his directorial path and gain acknowledgment for his craft.
1.
Cannes Films May Not Shine as Brightly in 2026
Anticipating Surprises at the 2026 Oscars
Overall, my leading prediction for the 2026 Oscars is that the films showcased at Cannes this year may not carry the same weight as those from 2024. Last year saw Anora walking away with multiple accolades after winning the Palme d’Or, signaling its immense popularity among the Academy members. Nevertheless, the competition for the upcoming Oscars appears to be escalating, with notable filmmakers like Noah Baumbach and Guillermo Del Toro unveiling films likely to contend for top honors.
The 2026 Oscars are scheduled for Sunday, March 15, and will be hosted by Conan O’Brien. Ultimately, uncertainty reigns when it comes to Oscar predictions; history has shown that expectations can often be misleading. As seen with Francis Ford Coppola’s much-anticipated Megalopolis, which fell flat commercially and critically, it emphasizes that only time will reveal how the Oscar landscape will unfold.