The Oscars Curse: An Ominous Trend for Best Director Winners
Attention filmmakers and studio heads: the so-called Oscars curse may indeed have a firm basis in reality. A striking trend has emerged over the past thirteen years, indicating that many winners of the Best Director award have faced significant challenges in their subsequent cinematic endeavors. These follow-up films often underperform at the box office or fail to resonate with viewers, casting a long shadow over what should be a career-defining triumph.
Identifying the Pattern of Post-Oscar Downturns
Analyzing recent history reveals a disconcerting pattern: Ang Lee’s acclaimed film Life of Pi (2012), which earned him an Oscar, was succeeded by the poorly received Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (2016). Similarly, Damien Chazelle followed up his award-winning La La Land (2016) with the lackluster First Man (2018). Guillermo del Toro’s critically lauded The Shape of Water (2018) led into the disappointing Nightmare Alley (2021), which failed to break even at the box office. Chloé Zhao, fresh off her victory with Nomadland (2020), stumbled with Eternals (2021), a supposed launchpad for a superhero franchise that faltered both critically and commercially.
A History of the Curse
The looming specter of the Best Director curse dates back to Michael Cimino’s post-The Deer Hunter failure, Heaven’s Gate (1980), which led to considerable financial loss for the studio. This curse reemerged in recent weeks as acclaimed filmmaker Bong Joon Ho’s latest project, Mickey 17, struggled, leading to speculation about the broader implications of this trend in the film industry.
Budgeted at $118 million, with an additional marketing campaign cost, Mickey 17 has garnered only $40.8 million domestically and a mere $110.7 million globally. This film, which features Robert Pattinson in the lead role, is positioned to incur a substantial financial loss, marking a stark contrast to Bong’s earlier success with Parasite (2019), which won numerous awards, including four Oscars, and enthralled audiences worldwide.
The Weight of Industry Recognition
“This award is the ultimate validation from Hollywood,” remarks Thomas Doherty, a film professor at Brandeis University, in a conversation with The Hollywood Reporter. “Unless directors remain grounded, the newfound acclaim can lead to problems.” Such accolades afford winners significant leeway in selecting their projects, sometimes leading to decisions driven more by ambition than by sound judgment.
Case in point: Ang Lee embraced experimental techniques in Billy Lynn, employing an unprecedented 120 frames per second technology in conjunction with 3D filming. This choice, while innovative, resulted in a dismal domestic total of merely $2 million as it encountered significant distribution challenges. Critics were unforgiving; The Guardian’s Peter Bradshaw lamented that the film’s ambitious frame rate ultimately detracted from its narrative coherence.
Learning from the Missteps
Guillermo del Toro’s Nightmare Alley and Chazelle’s First Man also illustrate this worrying trend. Del Toro’s film featured an ensemble cast but only matched its substantial budget with a lower-than-expected box office return, generating $40 million against a $60 million budget. Chazelle, meanwhile, faced scrutiny for the runtime of his film, as audiences found the pacing a hindrance to enjoyment.
A New Approach to Follow-Ups?
Chloé Zhao’s experience with Eternals, which was in production when she received her award for Nomadland, raises the question of whether this curse affects directors even before they embark on their new projects. Alternatively, this could suggest a phenomenon similar to the Peter Principle, which highlights that exceptional talents may struggle to adapt their skills to new contexts effectively.
Breaking the Curse: Notable Exceptions
Despite the curse, two directors—Alejandro Iñárritu and Alfonso Cuarón—stand as notable exceptions. Both filmmakers have secured Oscar wins twice without falling prey to this post-award slump. After his first win for Birdman, Iñárritu achieved back-to-back Oscars with the acclaimed The Revenant, while Cuarón followed up Gravity with the universally celebrated Roma.
Looking Ahead
While the curse may seem daunting, it’s important to remember that challenges can often lead to growth and transformation. Bong Joon Ho’s cinematic journey is far from over with Mickey 17. Moreover, other recent Best Director recipients like Jane Campion, The Daniels, Christopher Nolan, and Sean Barker have yet to release their subsequent projects, leaving the potential for a turnaround alive.
As Thomas Doherty posits, the esteem associated with winning the Best Director award could cast a shadow over future projects, as collaborators may be reluctant to challenge a director’s decisions. “Who today would dare to advise caution to a filmmaker of that caliber?” he questions, underscoring a precarious balance in Hollywood between creative autonomy and collaborative critique.
While the Oscars curse may be a narrative thread that binds many celebrated directors, it also serves as a reminder that each project is a fresh opportunity to redefine success in the ever-evolving landscape of filmmaking.