The future of NCIS hangs in the balance, especially given CBS’ historical patterns of show cancellations. As the franchise enters its 22nd season, it stands as a television staple, ranking as the third-longest-running scripted live-action series in the United States. Only NBC’s Law & Order: Special Victims Unit and the original Law & Order, which are currently in their 26th and 24th seasons, respectively, have surpassed it. While its longevity is remarkable, the reality is that NCIS may be approaching its twilight.
An Evolution Marked by Substantial Change
NCIS has experienced a plethora of changes throughout its extensive run. Like many long-standing ensemble series, it has bid farewell to numerous original cast members while integrating new talent. The most notable departure was that of Mark Harmon, whose character, Leroy Jethro Gibbs, was synonymous with the show since its premiere. Following Gibbs’s retirement in season 19, viewers welcomed Gary Cole as Alden Parker, who took a lead role in the Major Case Response Team (MCRT). This transition proved to be smoother than many anticipated, yet there are emerging concerns regarding the show’s sustainability.
Season 22: A New Low Point?
Alarming Viewership Numbers This Season
According to a report by TV Line, the sixth episode of NCIS season 22, titled “Knight & Day,”managed only 4.92 million viewers, matching the past episode “The Trouble with Hal.”These numbers highlight a concerning trend, as they are the lowest ratings the show has seen in its over two-decade history. Even more striking, episode 4, “Sticks & Stones,”attracted just 4.76 million viewers, despite delivering one of the more profound storylines of the current season.
This particular episode revolved around the team’s mission to prevent a looming World War III, while Jessica Knight and Jimmy Palmer’s relationship reached a pivotal point. The narrative was engaging, showcasing the characters’ struggles against the FBI, a recurring conflict in the series. Meanwhile, it provided a satisfying resolution to Knight and Palmer’s romantic storyline.
Ratings Parallels with NCIS: Hawai’i
Cancellation of NCIS: Hawai’i—A Warning Signal?
Despite briefly recovering after dipping to its lowest ratings, NCIS season 22 has still not achieved the viewership seen in its preceding season. Although NCIS is a revered institution in network television, this decline raises eyebrows, especially considering the recent cancellation of NCIS: Hawai’i. CBS’s decision to end the offshoot showcased the network’s willingness to make tough calls, hinting that the flagship program may not be immune to similar fate.
The network attributed its decision to various factors, including poor ratings and efforts to manage production costs while revamping its programming slate. A comparison of viewership between the first nine episodes of NCIS: Hawai’i’s third season and NCIS season 22 reveals troubling similarities.
|
Episodes |
NCIS Season 22 |
NCIS: Hawai’i Season 3 |
|
1 |
6.42 |
5.56 |
|
2 |
5.37 |
5.22 |
|
3 |
4.92 |
5.40 |
|
4 |
4.76 |
5.40 |
|
5 |
5.26 |
4.82 |
|
6 |
4.92 |
4.98 |
|
7 |
5.62 |
5.40 |
|
8 |
4.89 |
5.12 |
|
9 |
4.92 |
5.07 |
|
Average: |
5.23 |
5.21 |
Cost considerations accompany these ratings; filming on location in Hawaii is likely more expensive than utilizing established sets for NCIS. Moreover, with veterans like Sean Murray and Brian Dietzen having been with the franchise for over two decades, their salaries are presumably substantial. In contrast, newer faces from NCIS: Hawai’i would entail lesser payroll, contributing to CBS’s decision-making process.
The Future of NCIS: A Network Gamble
The NCIS Franchise Expands Beyond the Original Show
Significant transformations have characterized NCIS in recent years. The exit of Gibbs marked a major turning point, leading many to speculate about the show’s potential decline. However, NCIS continues to function reasonably well, despite a recent dip in ratings. Nevertheless, CBS’s decision to cancel NCIS: Hawai’i raises questions about the flagship series’ fate. The television landscape is evolving rapidly, and it’s clear that even established shows like Blue Bloods can be unexpectedly cut.
Interestingly, the NCIS brand is not in jeopardy of vanishing altogether. As of 2024, CBS introduced NCIS: Origins, which explores Gibbs’s backstory and earlier years in the agency. Additionally, NCIS: Sydney marks the franchise’s first international endeavor, while there are plans for a much-anticipated reunion featuring Michael Weatherly and Cote de Pablo in NCIS: Tony & Ziva.